Selling buying information on renewable energy. Alternative energy in Russia

The article was prepared with the financial support of the Russian Scientific Humanitarian Foundation (project No. 09-02-00160a).

The global energy industry is at a crossroads. The economy requires more and more energy, and the fossil fuels on which traditional energy is based are by no means unlimited. However, the problem lies not only in the exhaustibility of resources, but also in the growing rate of depletion of old fields and the constant increase in the cost of developing new ones, which is reflected in the cost of hydrocarbons. The situation is aggravated by the fact that the use of fossil fuels, which has reached enormous proportions, causes significant harm to the environment, which affects the quality of life of the population. Experts see a way out of this situation in an all-round increase in the efficiency of using traditional energy sources and expanding the use of renewable energy sources.

The term "renewable energy sources" is used in relation to those energy sources, the reserves of which are replenished in a natural way and in the foreseeable future are practically inexhaustible. Depending on the technologies used, RES are divided into traditional and non-traditional. Traditional RES include hydraulic energy converted into electricity at large hydropower plants, as well as biomass energy (wood, dung, straw, etc.) used to generate heat by traditional combustion. The group of non-traditional RES includes solar and geothermal energy, wind and sea wave energy, currents, tides, hydraulic energy converted into electricity at small hydropower plants (up to 10 MW), and biomass energy used to generate heat, electricity and motor fuel by non-traditional methods 1 .

special attention deserves to study the world markets for non-traditional RES. This is explained by the fact that, firstly, they are less studied, and secondly, they are more promising compared to traditional renewable energy sources.

The place of non-traditional RES in the global energy sector . The main advantage of non-traditional RES over other energy sources is their renewable nature and environmental friendliness. The undoubted advantage is also the wide distribution of most of their species. Other incentives for the introduction of non-traditional RES are the security of supply, rising prices for fossil fuels, and the development of appropriate technologies.

It should be noted that the world's fossil fuel reserves are very unevenly distributed. Limited resources pose a threat to the energy security of the country and raises the problem of the reliability of its supplies. The other side of the issue concerns political risks. As a result, some countries that consume a lot of energy, but do not have adequate resources of fossil fuels, are critically dependent on its imports and, as a result, on the political situation in countries that produce hydrocarbon fuels. As is well known, the transit of these energy carriers is associated with risks. Renewable energy is much safer because it is based on the use of local or regional resources. In addition, its development contributes to the diversification of energy supplies, which enhances the energy security of the respective regions.

The competitiveness of non-traditional RES is highly dependent on energy prices. The higher they are, the more profitable is the use of non-traditional RES. According to the calculations of IMEMO RAS experts, the production of, for example, motor fuel from agricultural crops (corn, rapeseed, sugarcane) is profitable at an oil price of 50-70 dollars per barrel. . As a result, fluctuations in fossil fuel prices introduce an element of uncertainty into the plans of non-traditional renewable energy developers.

At the same time, the tightening of environmental requirements, leading to an increase in the cost of specific capital investments in the construction of traditional generating capacities, clearly contributes to the development of non-traditional renewable energy sources. According to the calculations of Russian experts, about five years ago, 1 kW of traditional capacities cost $1,000-1,200; now these costs have increased to $2,800-3,000. However, the main driver for expanding the use of non-traditional renewable energy sources is, of course, scientific and technological progress. New technologies are constantly increasing the competitiveness of non-traditional energy.

The weakest point of non-traditional RES is the higher cost of the energy produced compared to fossil fuels. Other negative qualities are the low density of the energy flux (specific power) and its variability over time. The first circumstance makes it necessary to create large areas of power plants that “intercept” the flow of energy used (the receiving surfaces of solar installations, the area of a wind wheel, extended dams of tidal power plants, etc.). This leads to large-scale exclusion of land plots and high material consumption of such devices, therefore, to an increase in specific capital investments compared to traditional power plants. Variability in time, in turn, requires additional costs for equipment that provides the collection, accumulation and conversion of energy.

The disadvantages of non-traditional RES should, obviously, also include the fact that in the production of electricity from these intermittent sources on an industrial scale, difficulties arise due to the impossibility of constantly pairing the production of electricity with its consumption (with a load schedule). Technical difficulties may also arise when integrating power plants based on non-traditional renewable energy sources into a common power grid. In order to avoid changes in the parameters of the integrated energy system (primarily frequency), the share of unregulated power plants (wind and solar power plants) should not exceed, according to experts, 10-15% of the total capacity.

The potential of RES, especially solar and geothermal energy, is huge (Table 1) . So, only the Sun daily sends to the Earth 20 times more energy than it is used by the entire population of the globe in a year. However, it is extremely difficult to “take” this energy and keep it.

Table 1

RES potential in the world, Edge/year

As the data in Table. 1, the technical potential of RES 2 is currently estimated at 7500 EJ/year, which is 17 times higher than the annual volume of world production of all primary energy resources (about 445 EJ in 2006) . The table also eloquently indicates that the technical (and even more theoretical) potential of non-traditional RES is many times greater than the potential of RES used mainly by traditional methods (biomass and hydropower) 3 .

Given the renewable nature, environmental friendliness, and the ubiquitous availability of most non-traditional renewable energy sources, many countries of the world pay great attention to their development, making this area an important area of their state technical policy. Moreover, in many of them last years solidly funded state programs appeared in this area, regulatory and legislative acts were adopted in the field of the use of non-traditional renewable energy sources, which formed the legal, economic and informational basis of this area of technical development. As of 2008, more than 70 countries have officially set targets for the development of non-traditional RES (as a share of the final consumption of primary sources or of electricity generation).

The contribution of RES to the global energy balance is still small. Thus, in 2006 they provided 18% of the world's final energy consumption. At the same time, the share of biomass and hydropower used in traditional ways accounted for the vast majority of this contribution - about 15.6%, the share of non-traditional renewable energy sources - only 2.4%. Nevertheless, scientists associate the future of renewable energy with non-traditional RES. The validity of this opinion is evidenced not only by their huge potential, coupled with other advantages, but also by the rapid growth of renewable energy capacities in recent years. So, from 2002 to 2006, the average annual growth rate of non-traditional renewable energy sources for individual carriers ranged from 15 to 60%:

At the heart of such high rates, of course, is scientific and technological progress, which contributes to the improvement of technologies and the reduction in the cost of equipment for the use of non-traditional renewable energy sources. However, one cannot underestimate the importance of such factors as the increase in state support for this sector of the economy, as well as the very rapid growth in fossil fuel prices noted in these years. Power production capacities using traditional renewable energy sources (large hydroelectric power stations, traditional biomass) grew in these years at a much lower rate - 3-5%. Obviously, the following fact also deserves attention: in 2008, in the US and the EU, the absolute increase in capacities for non-traditional renewable energy sources exceeded the increase in capacities for conventional energy carriers.

According to international experts, RES can replace fossil fuels in four areas: electricity generation; cooking and space heating; motor fuel production; autonomous energy supply to rural areas.

In the electric power industry in 2006, non-traditional RES accounted for about 5% of installed capacity and 3.4% of generated electricity. The total world electricity generation capacity in the same year was about 4300 GW, of which RES accounted for 22.7%, large hydroelectric power plants - 17.9, non-traditional RES - 4.8 (including wind power plants (WPP) - 1 .7, small hydropower plants - 1.7, biomass installations - 1.0, geothermal plants - 0.2, photovoltaic installations (PV) - 0.1%).

The sharp rise in prices for oil and other traditional energy carriers in 2007 - the first half of 2008 gave a powerful boost to the development of non-traditional RES. As a result, their total installed capacity worldwide increased from 207 GW in 2006 to 280 GW in 2008 (Table 2) . At the same time, the capacity of wind turbines increased from 74 to 121 GW, small HPPs - from 73 to 85 GW, FU - from 5 to 13 GW. By this year, the leaders in the development of non-traditional RES were China (76 GW), the USA (40 GW), Germany (34 GW), Spain (22 GW), India (13 GW) and Japan (8 GW). The capacity of non-traditional RES in developing countries reached 119 GW in 2008 (43% of the world).

table 2

World (installed) electricity generation capacity, GW

The scale and speed of development of certain types of non-traditional RES depend on the availability of resources and the degree of development of relevant technologies, and ultimately on the cost of the energy received. Thus, electricity generated by non-traditional RES installations is still noticeably more expensive than electricity generated by large hydroelectric power plants or thermal power plants. For information: the cost of energy produced by a modern thermal power plant is currently 40-70 dollars / MWh. However, individual technologies for the use of non-traditional RES (small HPPs, ground-based wind turbines, geothermal stations, co-processing of biomass with coal) are already quite competitive compared to traditional ones (Table 3) . At the same time, the energy generated by photovoltaic installations and solar thermal stations is still very expensive. However, two additional factors must be taken into account here. Firstly, the technologies involved in non-traditional renewable energy sources are rapidly improving, therefore, the cost of electricity produced with their help is falling. Secondly, we must not forget that non-traditional renewable energy sources are environmentally friendly, renewable, and, if necessary, can work autonomously and supply energy to consumers not connected to distribution networks of centralized energy sources.

Table 3

The cost of generating electricity from using renewable energy

Despite the fact that electricity generated by large hydroelectric power plants is one of the cheapest in many countries, especially developed countries, the growth of large hydropower capacity in recent years has been constrained by environmental considerations, as well as the risk of flooding large areas and the need to relocate large masses of the population.

In 2006, the installed capacity of large hydropower plants in the world reached 770 GW, and their electricity generation reached 2725 TWh, which accounted for about 15% of the world's electricity production (compared to 19% in 1996). Average annual growth rates of energy production at large HPPs in 2002-2006. were below 3, and in developed countries - below 1%.

In accordance with the baseline forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA) (World Energy Outlook 2008), the average annual growth rate of electricity production at large hydropower plants in the period 2007-2030. will amount to 2% and by 2030 their energy output will exceed 4380 TWh. The share of large hydropower plants in the total world electricity production will decrease to 12.4%.

Small hydropower is free from the disadvantages of a large one. In this regard, its prospects look much more preferable. Small hydroelectric power plants (with a capacity of up to 10 MW) are often created for autonomous or semi-autonomous supply of electricity to the rural population and to replace diesel generators and other small energy devices, the production of which is usually very expensive. Between 2001 and 2006, the average annual growth rate of small hydropower capacity in the world was 7%. By 2006, their level reached 73 GW, and their energy output was over 250 TWh. Taking into account the limited hydro resources in the world, it can be assumed that in the period up to 2030 the rate of development of small hydropower will noticeably decrease, but nevertheless remain higher than that of large hydropower. With a growth rate of 4.5-4.7%, electricity output from small hydropower plants will reach 770-780 TWh by 2030, which will account for more than 2% of the world's total electricity generation.

Wind power is one of the most dynamic sectors of non-traditional RES. According to the IEA, in 2006 electricity generation from wind energy was 130 TWh, which accounted for 0.7% of the world's electricity production. As of the same year, the installed capacity of wind turbines in the world reached 74 GW. Compared to 2000, they have quadrupled. The cost of electricity produced by ground-based wind turbines is one of the lowest. Wind energy is used in more than 70 countries of the world, the leaders are the USA, Spain, India and China.

The potential for wind energy is huge. According to the IEA baseline forecast (WEO 2008), by 2030, global electricity production using wind energy will increase to 1490 TWh, which will be 4.5% of the total electricity generation in the world. Coastal areas are considered the most promising in this regard, but so far the number of offshore wind turbines is growing slowly due to the high cost of equipment and the complexity of its maintenance. In 2006, the production of electricity using sea-based wind turbines amounted to about 2 TWh. By 2030, this indicator is expected to increase to 350 TWh due to a decrease in the cost of such installations. At the same time, the largest increase in the installed capacity of offshore wind turbines is predicted in the EU countries, where by 2030 their share in the total electricity production using wind energy will increase to 17%.

In the coming years, and maybe even decades, biomass will remain the main renewable energy source, but so far only 6.8% of its volume is used to generate electricity - mainly agricultural waste and household waste. In 2006, the world's electricity production from biomass was 220 TWh, representing 1.2% of the world's electricity production. According to experts, by 2030 the use of biofuels unconventional ways will increase noticeably. According to the IEA baseline forecast (WEO 2008), the amount of biofuels used for electricity generation will increase from 83 Mtoe to 83 Mtoe. in 2006 to 290 Mtoe in 2030 (average annual growth rate - 5%). Taking into account the increase in the efficiency of electricity generation from biofuels, the production of electricity from this energy carrier will increase even more by 2030 - up to 840-860 TWh (average annual growth rate - 5.7%), which will be about 2.4- 2.6% of the total electricity production in the world.

So far, of all non-traditional RES, the use of geothermal energy is developing at the lowest rate (2-3% per year). In 2006, the installed capacity of geothermal plants in the world was 10 GW, they produced 60 TWh - about 0.3% of the total world electricity production. There are grounds to assume that by 2030, energy generation at GeoTPPs will increase to 120-125 TWh, but their share in the total world electricity production will remain at the level of 0.3%. Expansion of capacities of similar stations is expected in the USA and developing countries of Asia.

Currently, solar energy is converted into electrical energy mainly in two ways - photovoltaic and thermodynamic. The first is far ahead of the second. In 2006, the total installed capacity of photovoltaic installations that convert the light energy of the sun into electricity amounted to about 8 GW in the world. The power of solar thermal stations was more than 10 times less.

Most of the medium and large FIs are now being integrated into the electricity grid, from which the lack of solar energy is being compensated. The surplus is transferred to the network. FIs built into the system have shown exceptionally high growth rates in recent years (about 50% per year). Their installed capacity by 2006 reached 5 GW. The power of most of the FU is a few kilowatts or tens of kilowatts. At the same time, FUs are increasingly becoming an integral part of the architecture of various structures. Since 2006, many countries around the world began to build solar power plants with a capacity of hundreds of kilowatts to megawatts. For example, Google has built a 1.6 MW solar power plant in California, and the US Air Force has built a 14 MW plant at its base in Nevada. Spain is building two solar power plants, each with a capacity of 20 MW. In general, there are currently over 800 plants with a capacity of more than 200 kW and 9 stations (in Germany, Portugal, Spain, USA) with a capacity of more than 10 MW each in the world.

Small solar installations (with a capacity of less than 1 kW) that are not connected to the grid also find various applications: providing electricity to premises in rural areas that do not have a centralized supply, remote telecommunications devices, traffic signals, etc.

According to the IEA baseline scenario (WEO 2008), global FC electricity production will increase by almost 50 times from 2006 to 2030 and reach 245 TWh by the end of this period, which will be about 0.7% of total electricity generation in the world. At the same time, the greatest development of FIs will occur in housing and communal services due to the growth of market prices for electricity, as well as state support for non-traditional RES.

The principle of operation of a solar thermal station is based on the conversion of solar energy into thermal energy using a solar concentrator. The thermal energy is then converted into electricity using a conventional steam power plant. For the period 1990-2004. such stations were practically of no interest, and almost no new capacities were created. The situation has changed dramatically with the advent of new technologies. Since 2004, new solar thermal stations have been established in Israel, Portugal, Spain, and the USA. In 2006, stations in Nevada (with a capacity of 64 MW) and in Spain (11 MW) came into operation. In 2007, more than 20 new solar thermal stations were being built or designed around the world. In Spain alone, three plants of 50 MW each are currently under construction and another 10 similar plants are being designed. In the United States, it is planned to build 8 solar thermal stations with a total capacity of 2 GW. In 2006, the total installed capacity of such plants was 354 MW, by 2030 it may increase to 7 GW. It is expected that by this year more than 100 TWh will be generated at such power plants, which will be about 0.3% of the total electricity production in the world.

The practical application of tidal energy is much less developed. There is only one large tidal power plant in the world with a capacity of 240 MW in France. With regard to the use of the energy of sea waves, this method is at the stage of initial experimentation.

Taking into account the development trends discussed above for individual non-traditional RES, their place in the world energy sector in the period up to 2030 is as follows (Table 4).

Table 4

Share of non-traditional RES in electricity generation in the world*

Energy source	Electricity generation, TWh	Growth rate, %
Energy source


Large HPPs
Non-traditional RES:
wind energy
small hydropower plants
biomass
geothermal energy
solar light energy
solar thermal energy
ocean energy

* Calculated based on WEO 2008 data.

As a result of further improvement of technologies for the use of non-traditional renewable energy sources and a corresponding reduction in the cost of electricity produced on their basis, as well as the preservation of state support for this sector of the world energy in most developed and many developing countries of the world, the share of non-traditional renewable energy sources in the total world electricity production from 2006 to 2030 will will increase almost 3 times (from 3.5 to 10.2%). The corresponding share of RES over this period will increase to a much lesser extent - from 17.9 to 22.6%. The share of large HPPs will decrease from 14.4% to 12.4% over the same years.

Another area where non-traditional renewable energy sources are gradually replacing traditional energy carriers is motor fuel. Alternative motor fuel (biofuel) is produced from a special biomass - agricultural crops. Moreover, if the raw material is sugar, corn, wheat, then the resulting biofuel is called ethanol, and if palm oil, rapeseed or other oilseeds, then biodiesel. In 2006, the production of ethanol in the world reached 39 billion liters, biodiesel - 6 billion liters. Thus, in general, in the indicated year, biofuels covered 1.2% of the needs for motor fuel.

Biofuels have become the favorite child of Western politicians due to two of their virtues. First, against the backdrop of a sharp jump in oil prices in 2005-2008. and growing tensions between importers and "unreliable", in their opinion, exporters of energy resources, biofuels began to be seen as a way to diversify the energy balance and almost the main means of getting rid of oil and gas dependence. Secondly, an equally popular advantage of biofuels is its environmental friendliness.

However, the large-scale development of this industry is still in question. Moreover, technical difficulties (the need to modify engines running on enriched mixtures, difficulties associated with the use in very hot and very cold weather, with transportation through pipelines) are successfully resolved. The problems that lie in the economic plane are much more serious. Thus, in Brazil and other countries, where favorable weather conditions (warm, sunny climate) are combined with cheap land and labor, a competitive product can be produced at moderate ($40 or more) prices per barrel of oil. In developed countries with their cool climates and less suitable crops, the cost of a similar product is noticeably higher: in the USA - almost twice, in Europe - almost three times (since plants in these regions accumulate less solar energy). Biofuel becomes competitive in these countries thanks to the most powerful support from the state, which stimulates its retail sales.

However, there is an even more complex problem: the production of biofuels is hampered primarily by the lack of free agricultural land. The world arable wedge has reached maximum dimensions in the late 80s of the last century, and since then it has not been possible to significantly increase it. To produce biofuels, you have to use part of the food crop as a feedstock. For example, in 2006 in the United States, 20% of the main grain crop, corn, was used for the production of biofuels. This share was not less in 2007.

The growth in the consumption of food crops by biofuel producers naturally leads to an increase in prices for these crops, which, on the one hand, affects the standard of living of the population, and, on the other hand, reduces the competitiveness of biofuels compared to traditional energy carriers.

Given all the shortcomings of biofuel, we believe that it will not be able to become a serious alternative to oil, much less affect its cost. But in a number of countries with particularly favorable natural conditions, it will be quite profitable. However, much depends on the level of oil prices. Thus, until 2008, in the context of high oil prices, the production of biofuels in the world continued to grow and reached 80 billion liters. The decline in its production was outlined in 2009 with the fall in oil prices. In the US, about 20% of ethanol plants have closed this year. Brazil, for its part, said it was increasing the proportion of sugar cane going to sugar refineries.

Nevertheless, it is obviously not worth talking about the “death” of this industry. As oil prices rise, biofuels will once again become competitive. According to the base scenario of the IEA forecast (WEO 2008), by 2030 the world production of biofuels will reach 300 billion liters (80% - ethanol, 20% - biodiesel), which will be able to provide about 5.5% of the world consumption of motor fuel.

In the period up to 2030, Brazil and the USA will remain the largest consumers of ethanol, while the countries of the EU and Asia will remain the largest consumers of biodiesel fuel. In the US, since 2007, most gasoline has been sold with ethanol additives. In Brazil, gas stations sell either pure ethanol or a mixture of ethanol and gasoline. Demand for ethanol in this country is supported by the mass production of vehicles adapted to run on various ethanol-gasoline blends.

The widespread use of second-generation biofuels, obtained by gasification or hydrolysis from biomass, represented by agricultural waste, wood and cellulose, will obviously begin after 2015.

Another area of application of non-traditional RES is the production of thermal energy. In 2006, about 3% of thermal energy was produced on the basis of non-traditional biomass, geothermal and solar energy. There are forecasts that by 2030 the share of non-traditional RES in the production of thermal energy will increase to 7%. In the final world energy consumption in the period 2006-2030, according to our calculations, their share will increase from 2.4 to 8.3%, and of all RES - from 18.0 to 18.4% (Table 5).

As follows from the data in Table. 5, until 2030, non-renewable types of energy (fossil fuel and nuclear energy) will remain the basis of the world energy (81.6%) and renewable energy sources, and even more so, non-traditional renewable energy sources will not become competitors for them. Nevertheless, the importance of non-traditional renewable energy sources will increase, and by 2050 their share in the global energy balance may increase to one quarter. Their main advantage will remain inexhaustibility, environmental friendliness, wide distribution and the ability to supply heat and electricity to consumers not connected to centralized systems.

Table 5

Share of non-traditional RES in final energy consumption in the world*

*Calculated from .

Opportunities for the development of non-traditional RES in Russia . Despite the excellent supply of traditional energy sources, Russia is also interested in using non-traditional renewable energy sources. The latter may have several areas of application. Firstly, this is the power supply of the northern and other hard-to-reach and remote areas that are not connected to the public grid, where about 10 million people live. Bringing fuel to these areas has become a difficult problem. Huge distances and significant transportation costs lead to the fact that in some of them (Kamchatka, the Kuriles, the Tyva Republic, the Altai Republic, etc.), the cost of imported fuel and electricity generated from it becomes so high that it makes non-traditional renewable energy technologies commercially attractive.

Increasing generating capacities in energy-deficient regions is another area for the possible use of non-traditional renewable energy sources in Russia. More than 15 million Russians live in places where the centralized power supply is unreliable and consumers are regularly disconnected from the network. Emergency shutdowns disrupt the life of cities and rural areas, causing enormous damage to industrial and agricultural production. The use of local non-traditional RES, mainly wind power, small hydropower plants and biomass, would avoid such losses and at the same time reduce the need for imported fuel.

Decentralized supply of electricity and heat to rural areas, including remote isolated settlements, family farms, individual country houses is also a promising area for the use of non-traditional RES. Moreover, this is often the only way to supply them. Potential consumers of non-traditional RES may also include forestry and fishing industries, meteorological, communication, archaeological and geological stations, radars, lighthouses, offshore oil and gas platforms.

Improvement of the ecological situation in resorts and other places of mass recreation of the population can also be achieved through the widespread introduction of non-traditional renewable energy sources (solar collectors, biogenerators, heat pumps, wind turbines, etc.). At the same time, electricity generated by some non-traditional renewable energy sources can already be cheaper than from diesel generators. In addition, the problem of importing traditional fuel is eliminated.

Russia has significant resources of various non-traditional renewable energy sources: wind energy, geothermal energy, hydropower resources of small rivers, non-traditional biomass energy and solar energy (Table 6) . In almost all regions there is one or two types of non-traditional RES, the commercial exploitation of which can be justified.

Table 6

Potential of non-traditional RES* in Russia, mln. tons per year

* The methodology for assessing the gross, technical and economic potential of non-traditional RES is detailed in the work.

** In accordance with the Russian definition of small hydro resources (plants with a capacity of up to 30 MW).

*** Low-potential heat is not included in the totals.

Unlike foreign researchers who calculated the global gross and technical potential of non-traditional RES, Russian experts also assessed the economic potential, which is understood as part of the technical, the use of which is economically justified at the current level of prices for fossil fuels, heat, electricity, equipment and materials, transport and labor force. According to these estimates, the economic potential of non-traditional RES in Russia is about 260 million tons of fuel equivalent. tons, i.e. more than 28% of its total consumption of primary energy sources (in 2005 - 920 million tons of fuel equivalent, or 645 million tons of oil equivalent). It should be noted that the calculation of the economic potential of non-traditional RES in Russia was made at the end of the 20th century. By now, it appears to have increased in line with the rise in fossil fuel prices and the reduction in costs associated with the development of renewable energy.

As for the technical potential of non-traditional RES in Russia, it exceeds 4658 million tons of fuel equivalent. per year, which is about 5 times its total consumption of primary energy resources.

According to experts, today Russian renewable technologies (except wind turbines) are comparable to foreign technologies in terms of their working and scientific and technical characteristics, however, most of them, due to the lack of ready-made markets, are at the stage of either scientific and technical development, or demo. If the state can give impetus to the development of the domestic market for non-traditional renewable energy equipment, the domestic industry, based on its significant technical and scientific experience, will be able not only to meet domestic demand, but also to allocate a significant part of the equipment produced for export.

Despite the rich resources and availability of areas of application, the practical use of non-traditional renewable energy sources in Russia is still extremely limited. Thus, according to IEA statistics (WEO 2007), energy from such sources in 2005 accounted for about 1% of the total consumption of primary energy carriers in the country. According to domestic experts, about 4% of heat in Russia is obtained from non-traditional renewable energy sources. According to official Russian data, as of 2008, the total installed capacity of power generating installations and power plants in Russia using non-traditional RES did not exceed 2.2 GW. Through such sources in Russia, no more than 8.5 billion kWh of electrical energy is generated, which is less than 1% of the total electricity production in the country. Thus, in terms of the share of non-traditional RES in the consumption of primary energy resources and the production of electricity, Russia is noticeably inferior to the developed countries of the world. Our backlog in the production of motor biofuels is even stronger.

The production of first-generation biofuels (from food raw materials) in Russia is practically not developing due to a number of reasons. Taking into account prices for oilseeds, Russian biodiesel is not competitive in the domestic and foreign markets. The situation is no better with ethanol. First, there is no surplus of corn in Russia, which is necessary for its production to be profitable. Secondly, domestic corn is much more expensive than in other producing countries. Thirdly, the excise tax on ethanol, which in Russia is classified as ethyl alcohol, is high (about 25 rubles/l), which makes it absolutely uncompetitive in relation to gasoline (where the excise tax is about 6 rubles/l).

At present, the main area of interest of domestic developers and manufacturers in this industry is second-generation biofuels obtained from plant cellulose. The raw material for cellulosic ethanol is non-food wood waste (straw, grass, sawdust). The production of bioethanol from them does not jeopardize the country's food balance. True, while the cost of production of cellulosic ethanol remains higher than the cost of grain bioethanol. However, technological progress in this industry is proceeding rapidly, and the cost of cellulosic ethanol is falling rapidly.

The main reason for the limited use of non-traditional RES in Russia is the relative high cost of energy derived from them compared to energy generated from fossil fuels. The lack of the necessary regulatory and legal framework, federal and regional support programs, as well as the lack of information about the resources, technologies and possibilities of non-traditional RES also hinder the scale of their application in the country.

However, the situation is slowly starting to change for the better. Thus, with the tightening of environmental requirements for traditional power plants and the improvement of the relevant equipment, the factor of non-competitiveness of non-traditional energy generation technologies is gradually disappearing. The attitude of the state towards non-traditional RES is also changing. An indicator of this is, first of all, the adoption by the Government of the Russian Federation on November 13, 2009 of a new Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2030, which paid considerable attention to the prospects for the development of alternative energy. According to this document, by 2030 the share of non-traditional renewable energy sources in the domestic energy balance should be at least 10% (by 2020 - at least 5%) . By the end of this period, the annual volume of electricity production based on them is projected to reach 80-100 billion kWh, i.e. increase it over the years by more than an order of magnitude.

The adoption of a number of important documents, primarily the law on non-traditional RES and the program for the development of non-traditional RES at the federal and regional levels, could accelerate the development of non-traditional RES in Russia. The law should define the legal status of energy producers based on non-traditional technologies, their rights and obligations. In addition, it should spell out the responsibility of federal, regional and local authorities in terms of establishing rules, standards, licensing, taxation of the activities of manufacturers involved in this area. In the Program for the Development of Non-traditional RES, it is necessary to fix measures of state support. Among the latter, in our opinion, it would be advisable to include such innovations as a significant increase in tax (environmental) payments and fees (receipts from which could be used to create a special fund to finance projects for non-traditional renewable energy sources), the introduction of a price premium for energy generated using these energy sources in the wholesale and retail markets, as well as subsidies for connecting non-traditional renewable energy facilities to networks. A positive role in shaping the market can also be played by demonstration facilities being built with funds from the federal and regional budgets. Such facilities must be built in all federal districts, taking into account the difference in climatic conditions and the prospects various kinds non-traditional RES. If all these measures are implemented, Russia will have a chance not only to achieve, but also to surpass the above targets.

1 There is a close relationship between renewable energy and hydrogen energy. RES along with nuclear power plants are considered as the main energy sources for the production of hydrogen from water. In turn, many types of RES power plants, in particular those using solar and wind energy, need efficient batteries, which can be used along with electric hydrogen storage.

2 RES technical potential - part of the total (theoretical) potential that can be used with the help of known technologies, taking into account social and environmental factors, but without taking into account profitability.

3 Currently, about 60% of biomass is used using traditional technologies, 10% - new technologies. More than 90% of hydropower is used in the traditional way at large HPPs and only 40% at small HPPs.

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www.minenergo.gov.ru/news/min_news/1515.html.

Foreword by RAWI

Energy companies and investors have shown their interest in the development of the wind energy market. It is natural that this sector is gradually attracting the attention of the deeper level companies of the entire energy industry and reaching the attention of the oil and gas sector. Renewable energy technologies are younger and entry into the “green energy” sector is of interest to this moment a minority of them, but the trend is steady. And all the more interesting is the view of the renewable energy market from the popular analytical publication of the oil and gas sector “Oil and Capital”:

Investment and development of projects of renewable energy sources (RES) goes by leaps and bounds, overtaking other types of energy in terms of growth. In this review of the “alternative” energy business of oil and gas companies, in addition to unquestionable areas (solar, wind, tide, geothermal sources, waves), the concept of renewable energy also includes small hydropower - facilities with an installed capacity of up to 50 MW. In 2017, according to the REN21 (Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century) report, the world spent $280 billion on renewable energy, which is only 2% more than in 2016, but twice the total investment in all new oil and gas projects in 2017 ($140 billion, according to Rystad). At the same time, the total investment in solar energy, according to the UN, increased by 18% compared to 2016 and amounted to about $160 billion. An increasing number of oil and gas corporations are involved in the renewable energy sector and are implementing projects in solar, wind energy, and biofuel production. At this stage of the world's so-called "energy transition" (or energy transformation, energy transition), there are three leading companies with a clear strategy for the development of renewable energy projects: Total, Shell and Equinor (formerly Statoil). Recently, state-owned companies (for example, the Chinese Sinopec), as well as national companies with high oil and gas reserves, have begun to pay considerable attention to this area. (Middle East Saudi Aramco, Petroleum Development Oman, Kuwait Oil Company). Despite the successful experience of foreign companies, Russian corporations seen in renewable energy projects (Rosneft, Gazprom, LUKOIL) still concentrate their main efforts on their core activities and do not consider RES as a strategic direction of development.

From experiments to business According to various forecasts, the growth rate in the field of renewable energy will be approximately 6-7% per year, which is significantly higher than the growth rate of other energy resources in the global structure of primary energy consumption (PEC). In particular, BP statistics give 7% per year, IEA (International Energy Agency) - 7% per year, ExxonMobil - 6% per year. At the same time, all forecasts agree that RES will provide about 40% of the total increase in energy consumption in 2016-2040. And according to the Wood Mackenzie forecast, by 2035 the renewable energy market will increase by 7 times. This is primarily due to the reduction in the cost of renewable energy. So, today, on average in the world, the cost of electricity produced by solar power plants is only 25% of its value in 2009, and, as Bloomberg predicts, it will decrease by another 66% by 2040. It is also expected that the cost of electricity from offshore wind farms by 2040 will decrease by 71%, on land - by 47%. With regard to geographical distribution, the main increase in the volume of renewable energy is expected in the developing countries of Asia (especially China and India). In the period from 2015 to 2040, renewable energy capacities in this region will increase by 58%, and their share in the energy mix will increase from 1% to 17% against the backdrop of a significant increase in energy consumption and the use of other fuels. In Europe, the growth in renewable energy consumption is projected at 56%, but the share of renewable energy in the TES in this region will grow even faster, which is explained by the effective state support energy transition. Meanwhile, it should be noted that in 2017 the volume of "green" investments in Europe, according to the UN, decreased by 36% compared to the previous year and amounted to $40.9 billion.

Three leaders among oil and gas majors A striking example of the successful application of the strategy of diversifying the oil and gas business and transforming it into an energy business is Total. With shares in SunPower, Saft, and others, it has all the links in the solar energy production chain. Total also pays great attention to the production of biofuels. In France, it has converted a refinery in Marseille into a biorefinery, which meets national needs, as the EU plans to increase the biofuel content in the final fuel content to 10% by 2020, and in France to 15% by 2030. Since 2017, Total has owned a 23.3% stake in EREN RE, which owns various solar, wind and hydropower assets with a total capacity of 650 MW. Within 5 years, the company plans to increase the installed RES capacity in the world through its projects up to 3 GW. Shell is the most active biofuel company, although it also invests in solar and wind energy. Shell owns 50% of Brazil's Ratzen, the largest producer of low-carbon ethanol from sugarcane, which, when used properly, reduces CO2 emissions by 70% compared to conventional fuels. In addition, the company is also investing in new ways to produce biofuels from waste and biomass containing cellulose.

Shell has been involved in wind energy for 10 years. Today the company is an investor in seven wind energy projects in North America and one in Europe. Based on the shares in these projects, the company owns 500 MW of installed wind power capacity. In the solar industry, Shell is implementing and developing a direction developed by subsidiary Glass Point Solar to use solar energy to generate steam for injection wells as part of stimulation and stimulation activities. In particular, Shell has implemented this method in the oil and gas company Petroleum Development Oman (PDO), in which it owns 34%, in order to reduce energy consumption in the production process.

The third major oil and gas company that actively invests in the development of renewable energy and is currently transforming from an oil and gas corporation into an energy holding is the Norwegian company Equinor (by the way, it was within the framework of this strategy that Statoil, according to its statement, changed its name in May 2018 so that it reflects the general energy orientation). Unlike the companies described above, Equinor invests mainly in one area of renewable energy - the construction of offshore wind farms. Equinor is among the shareholders of four large offshore wind farms in the UK and Germany, which in total serve the needs of more than 1 million households. Currently operating are Sheringham Shoal and Dudgeon in the UK, as well as the world's first floating wind farm, Hywind, off the coast of Scotland. The launch of the Arkona wind farm in Germany is scheduled for 2019; It was announced that Equinor, together with E.ON, will invest €1.2 billion in this project. In addition, Equinor has received all stakeholder approval for the Dogger Bank project in the UK, which is designed to provide clean energy to 5 million UK households. Recently, the Norwegian company has also started investing in the development of solar energy in Brazil, namely the construction of the 162 MW Apodifarm solar power plant. It is planned that Equinor's green investments will account for 15-20% of total investments annually. In 2018, the company will invest $500 million in renewable energy projects, the volume of investments will grow from year to year and will reach $1.5 billion in the second half of the 2020s. China: the fight for clean air Among the countries of the world, China is the world leader in installed capacity RES and investment in "green" energy, notes REN21. In 2017, China again supported this status by investing, according to Bloomberg, $126 billion in renewable energy. At the end of last year, the country ranked first in biofuel production, installed hydropower, solar and wind power, and geothermal heat production.

As part of the 13th five-year plan (2016-2020), China plans to increase the share of non-fossil energy sources in PES to 15% by 2020 and to 20% by 2030, while the installed RES capacity should be 680 GW by the end of the five-year period, from of which 210 GW should come from wind energy, the IEA notes. Experts believe that in the foreseeable future, the growth rate of RES in this country will be one of the highest in the world. For example, in 2017, China added 53 GW of solar capacity, more than the total installed solar capacity in any other country at the end of 2017. Geothermal energy is also developing rapidly. Interest in renewable energy is primarily due to air pollution in large cities in China. According to the BBC, citing a new study from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease Study) program, each year, approximately 1.6 million people in China die due to diseases caused by air pollution. Thus, Hebei Province is recognized as one of the most polluted. According to the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China, in the first 6 months of 2018, half of the 10 most polluted cities in the country were located in this province. The frequent smog in Beijing is usually caused by emissions from Hebei iron and steel works. Since 2012, Sinopec has been cooperating with the Icelandic company Arctic Green Energy Corporation to develop its potential in geothermal energy as part of a program to reduce air pollution in large cities. So far, coal has been completely replaced by geothermal energy in 16 cities in China. During the 13th five-year plan (2016-2020), it is planned to increase the number of such cities to 20, and increase the area of premises heated by geothermal energy to 100 million sq.m. Arctic Green and Sinopec established a joint venture Sinopec Green Energy Geothermal Development Co., Ltd. (SGE), which is by far the largest supplier of geothermal energy in the world, with a market share of 35% in China. The company operates 507 geothermal wells generating 3.65 GW and provides heat to more than 2 million people. As a result, according to Arctic Green Energy itself, thanks to geothermal projects, 5 million tons of CO2 emissions have been averted. Also in 2017, Sinopec completed 3 solar power generation projects for external customers. Moreover, the company reached a new level within the framework of the project for the production of biofuel for air transport after the Hainan Airlines Boeing 787 passenger aircraft refueled by it successfully completed a transoceanic flight. And in the industrial center of Zhenhai, where Sinopec operates an oil refining and petrochemical complex, the construction of a plant for the production of aircraft motor biofuel with a capacity of 100,000 tons per year has begun. Thus, the company plans to become the leader of the biofuel industry in China.

Middle East: all for CIN Even companies that do not experience problems with oil reserves are beginning to engage in the direction of renewable energy. For example, Saudi Aramco intends to invest $5 billion in solar energy by 2025. Management Saudi Arabia plans to increase the share of RES in PES to 10% by 2023 (corresponding to an installed capacity of 9.5 GW) and invest $7 billion in solar and wind assets by the end of 2018. Saudi Aramco plans to increase the use of solar panels in both the upstream and downstream sectors, as battery-powered solar panels are already the real competition for power lines from traditional power plants, said Saudi Aramco's chief executive, Amin Ben Hassan Nasser. The active development of renewable energy and the involvement of Saudi Aramco in "green" projects are partly associated with the company's planned IPO. In this way, stakeholders want to attract foreign capital focused on renewable energy and move away from the image of an oil giant that only damages the environment. Another Middle East company, Kuwait Oil Company, has announced that it will use solar power generation for oil recovery activities at its fields under development. Kuwait, a major oil exporter in the world market, imports LNG for its own energy needs, so the use of solar energy for the production of steam and other energy-intensive EOR will be more profitable. The company is going to cooperate with a subsidiary of Shell Glass Point, whose representatives claim that the use of solar energy will reduce the current costs of EOR by 2 times - from $13 to $6 per 1 BTU.

In Oman, Petroleum Development Oman has a long history of working with Shell and is using Glass Point Solar technology to improve oil recovery factors. According to Oman's plans, by 2025, 10% of the PES in the country will have to come from RES, the installed capacity of RES should be 2.5-3 GB. Oman Oil Company, together with Glass Point, is building the world's largest solar power plant for generating steam to increase oil recovery factor at the Amal field in southern Oman. The project with a budget of $600 million will reduce CO2 emissions by more than 300 thousand tons per year. Solar panels with an installed capacity of 1,021 MW will produce 6,000 tons of steam per day, which, according to Glass Point, will reduce production stimulation costs by 55%. In addition, in January 2018, Oman Oil Company held a tender for the construction of a 100 MW solar power plant in the south of the country and installed solar panels at two gas stations. An important aspect is also that the company considers RES as a source of employment for Omani citizens. Oman Oil Company plans to create 50 thousand new jobs outside the oil and gas sector (actually in RES) in the next three years.

Russian RES plans As Alexey Teksler, First Deputy Head of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, noted, in 2017 the volume of commissioning of installed RES capacities in Russia was higher than in the previous two years. If in 2015-2016 130 MW were commissioned, then in the past - already 140 MW, of which 100 MW are solar power plants, 35 MW are Finnish Fortum's wind farm in the Ulyanovsk region. According to REN21, by 2020 Russia plans to increase the share of renewable energy in electricity generation to 4.5%; by 2024 - to increase the capacity of solar energy up to 1.8 GW, wind power - up to 3.4 GW. According to the forecasts of Deputy Minister Alexei Teksler, by 2030, the share of renewable energy sources may already be 11% in the Russian energy balance.

Very precise... Despite the development of this area by various oil and gas companies of the world and the progress in the development of renewable energy sources in 2017, Russian oil and gas companies pay much less attention to the development of "green" energy. Although LUKOIL is usually called a pioneer in the field of renewable energy among Russian oil and gas companies, it has begun to actively invest in this industry ... abroad. In Bulgaria and Romania, solar energy was initially developed by a Russian company as an auxiliary branch of oil refining. In 2017, LUKOIL began investing in the development of renewable energy sources in Russia as well, having built and launched a 10 MW solar power plant at the Volgograd Refinery. The station was built in a short period of 7 months and allows to reduce CO2 emissions by 10 thousand tons annually and provide additional generation of 12 million kWh.

Wind energy was developed by LUKOIL as an independent direction. The company collaborated with the Italian ERGRenew, but due to the abolition of subsidies and the small scale of projects, cooperation was suspended. Another Russian VIOC, Gazprom Neft, is also developing renewable energy sources at its foreign assets - within the NIS subsidiary in Serbia. In particular, the company is building its own wind farm in Plandiste with 40 wind turbines with a total capacity of 100 MW. The launch date of the wind farm is not yet known.

Regarding Gazprom, information appeared that TGC-1, which is part of Gazprom Energoholding, plans to build several wind farms in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad Region with a total capacity of 50 MW. Search and evaluation of sites should be completed by October 31, 2018. At the same time, the official website of Gazprom says that the company "supports the use of alternative energy sources in economically and technically justified conditions, in particular in remote or technologically isolated areas." The website reports that today the company operates 1959 power plants based on secondary energy resources and renewable energy sources, including those using solar panels and wind turbines (due to the lack of power data and other more detailed information, the authors did not take into account these plants in summary table for Russian oil and gas companies). Judging by the information on the Rosneft website, the group of companies implemented only one renewable energy project in 2015-2016. Namely: LLC RN-Krasnodarneftegaz installed wind turbines with built-in solar panels at the facilities of the field named after. S. T. Korotkov in the Krasnodar Territory.

…and skeptical Noteworthy is the point of view on RES and the transformation of the energy sector as a whole of the head of the largest Russian VIOC. In his article Rosneft-2022: Strategy for the Future, published in Izvestiya in June 2017, after the shareholders' meeting, the head of the company, Igor Sechin, writes: “Many analysts think that the times of oil as the main source of energy are passing. But is it? Indeed, alternative energy sources are being developed, the electric vehicle manufacturing sector is developing, energy efficiency is growing ... But what is being completely missed? What an expensive pleasure it is to switch from hydrocarbon raw materials to renewable energy sources. And, most importantly, renewable energy sources cannot yet provide the necessary scale to replace traditional energy sources and sustainable energy supply. While the role of coal is declining for environmental reasons, nuclear energy is being limited... Thus, the main burden of meeting the demand of the world economy ultimately falls on oil and gas. Until 2050 and beyond, hydrocarbon energy has been and will be in demand.”

Strategies and their absence Analyzing the changes taking place (or not taking place) in the activities of various oil and gas companies, three key conclusions can be drawn. First, it is not only private oil and gas companies that are developing green energy capacities in an effort to keep up with the new technology market and diversify their business. National oil and gas companies are also beginning to be actively involved in the development of RES in the whole complex various reasons: to change its image in the international market, attract foreign investment, reduce the environmental burden in the country of operation and even to create new jobs. Secondly, the most successful projects of oil and gas companies in the field of renewable energy are strategic partnerships with specialized specialized companies and the use of ready-made technologies. This is justified by the savings in investments in technology development, the exchange of experience, as well as the reduction of financial and operational risks. And thirdly, the RES projects of Russian oil and gas companies are clearly not of a systemic nature. None of them demonstrates an integrated approach in this direction, there are no signs of joint scientific research with specialized partners, and there are no targeted developments of technologies in the field of alternative energy. The possibility of changes in the energy landscape, which in the future may threaten their core business, is simply ignored by them. In conclusion, we note that, given the skepticism of Russian companies and their confidence in a cloudless hydrocarbon future, it would not hurt them to adhere to the strategy of Middle Eastern companies - if only for reasons of forming an international image. In addition, there are both opportunities and economic feasibility for them to more actively minimize local production costs through RES.

Accounts for hydrocarbons - oil, natural gas, coal. In the production of electricity, they also dominate - about 70% of the world's electricity is provided by fossil raw materials. But today on energy market a new player is actively asserting itself, promising to push back and then bury traditional energy sources. This is about renewable energy, which has already grown from the “alternative” category, turning into the main, basic sector of the energy market. Suffice it to say that in the EU in 2014, 100% of the net increase in energy capacity came from renewable energy sources (RES). And even over a longer period, over the past 15 years, European renewable energy has taken first place in terms of growth.

In Russia, there is still an opinion that RES significantly more expensive than traditional methods of generating electricity based on coal or gas. This is no longer the case. Times are changing fast. In November 2015, the investment bank lazard released another study on US energy economics "Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis - 9.0". For outside observers who are accustomed to reading in our press about the “high cost and subsidization” of renewable energy, the results of this work may seem sensational. The so-called “new renewable energy sources”, which primarily include wind and solar energy, are the cheapest ways to generate electricity.

Cost of electricity generation without subsidies

As follows from the above figures, today only gas generation (combined cycle) can compete with renewable energy sources, which is confirmed by statistics on the commissioning of new capacities in the United States. The abundance of own cheap gas in the American market contributes to the creation of new gas-fired power plants. At the same time, the volumes of their commissioning in 2015 are inferior to both wind and solar energy. Cases of conclusion of wholesale long-term contracts for the supply of wind energy at prices significantly lower than gas electricity are recorded. American Xcel energy buys wind power at $25 per MWh, while gas electricity under contracts of the same duration costs about $32 per MWh, and thereby additionally insures against price fluctuations in commodity markets. It should be noted that such prices for wind electricity are comparable to the cost of electricity in the Russian wholesale market.

Coal-fired generation is associated with high specific capital costs, a long construction cycle and, most importantly, is at risk due to the increasing importance of climate policy. Coal, being the dirtiest raw material in terms of greenhouse gas emissions, is slowly becoming the fuel of yesterday.

The instability of RES electricity production may require a number of measures aimed at painless integration into the power grid. Therefore, skeptics argue that the calculation of the cost of energy should take into account these costs. Lazard estimates such integration costs at $2-10 MWh. At the same time, it should be noted that the need for such measures and the corresponding costs arises only with significant volumes of "discontinuous" generation and, on the other hand, underdevelopment of the network. Thus, the largest German network operator 50 herz claims (and he can see it better than anyone else) that the electric grid can "assimilate" a 70% share of solar and wind generation without the use of any additional storage.

Price competitiveness is achieved by RES in different markets in different time. In China, coal generation is still cheaper, but gas is more expensive than wind and solar electricity. In Germany and the UK, electricity from wind farms is already cheaper than both coal and gas generation - publishes Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Wind power has become a key sector of the global energy industry. In the EU, USA, China, it occupies a leading position in terms of commissioning of new energy capacities in both 2014 and 2015. In the EU, more capacity has been installed in wind energy over the past 15 years than in any other electricity sector. On the heels of the wind, solar energy is increasingly coming, which on the horizon of ten years can surpass wind generation in terms of the cost of electricity production (LCOE). Solar energy (more precisely, its main, photovoltaic sector) is distinguished by simple engineering and short construction times.

A modern photovoltaic plant is, in fact, a typical boxed solution, the implementation of which is associated with a minimum set of preparatory and construction work. Europe's largest solar power plant recently connected to the grid in France Cestas, with a capacity of 300 megawatts, was designed and built in just one year. In addition, compared to wind, solar energy has a great potential for "learning" - reducing specific capital costs due to further growth in mass production and increasing the efficiency of photovoltaic modules. Of course, wind electricity will also continue to fall in price, but the potential here is not so high.

Thus, in the short term, a new energy structure will take shape with the obvious dominance of solar and wind generation, which will dominate in regions with suitable natural conditions (solar and wind potential). Accordingly, the use of fossil raw materials for the production of electricity will be reduced. The first victim, as we noted, will be coal, which is likely to be subject to restrictions in the form of a carbon tax and even, in some markets, a complete ban.

The fate of natural gas is in question. If four years ago International Energy Agency (IEA) announced a "golden age of natural gas", today optimism has diminished. Gas capacities are being built in the USA, but almost never commissioned in Germany, India and China, where, it would seem, they are designed to replace outgoing coal. In these markets, "blue fuel" loses to other generation methods in terms of economics - even if low prices on raw materials.

Oil is almost never used for electricity generation; accordingly, the development of renewable energy does not pose a direct threat to the oil market. Danger comes from the other side. More than 60% of the world's oil is burned today in the transport sector. Therefore, the development of alternative transport technologies in the future will lead to a decrease in demand for black gold.

Renewable energy has become a big business, employing approximately 8 million people worldwide. Only in 2014 the volume investment in renewable energy amounted to $ 310 billion. The popularity of clean energy has gone far beyond the energy sector itself. Hundreds of companies, including the largest TNCs not directly related to the energy sector, declare their commitment to renewable energy. There is a global RE100 initiative. This acronym stands for "100% Renewable Energy". Participants include IKEA, Johnson&Johnson, Goldman Sachs, Google, H&M, Mars, Microsoft, Nike, Unilever and many others. Corporations take on voluntary commitments to use exclusively clean energy in their life. For example, IKEA is committed to providing itself with 100% renewable electricity by 2020.

Obligations to use renewable energy do not always mean that a company is fully self-sufficient in renewable electricity (for example, by installing solar modules on the roof). So, since 2007, Google has been a "climate neutral" company. At the same time, it provides itself with renewable energy by 30%. “Climate Neutrality” is achieved by investing in renewable energy assets around the world that provide generation equal to Google's consumption. Apple, the most valuable corporation in the world by capitalization, provides 100% clean electricity to its North American operations and data centers around the world. In Apple's global energy costs, RES cover today 87%.

These examples, of course, receive a great public outcry, form public opinion and, as a result, influence political decisions that stimulate the further development of RES.

In Russia, at the corporate level, the use of renewable energy sources is still unpopular. This is due to the presence of relatively cheap fossil raw materials and electricity, the insufficient development of Russian technologies proper, and, accordingly, the high cost of equipment. At the same time, in the segment of small businesses in the southern regions, the use of solar generation is quite in demand, especially if the business operates in areas not covered by electricity and gas supply networks.

In the Russian energy sector, RES are developing more actively. The main player is GC "Renova", whose companies built the country's first plant for the production of photovoltaic modules (with the participation of " Rosnano”), open solar power plants (SPP) and manage them. New projects have already been formed for the construction of 280 MW of SPP capacities by the end of 2019.

The development of wind energy is still at an early stage. There are well-developed plans for the localization of equipment production, at the same time, to date, only one wind farm project for 35 MW has been selected, which should be built in 2016. Further plans for the development of renewable energy sources are quite modest - by 2024, 6 GW of solar, wind generation and small hydroelectric power plants should operate in total (in China, by this time there will be a hundred times more). At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the specifics of Russian raw materials, as well as the presence of excess energy capacities in the market.

The existing support measures for renewable energy sources in Russia create opportunities for their development, including for the local production of appropriate equipment. At the same time, targeted measures cannot fully compensate for the shortcomings of the environment as a whole. The high cost of capital, the lack of financial resources hinder the industrial development of Russia, including power engineering.

Only two rounds of the first series of ten auctions for the placement of renewable energy facilities in May-June did not take place. This was announced at the second RES summit in Astana by the director of the relevant department of the Ministry of Energy Ainur Sospanova.

"Representatives participated Russian Federation, Bulgaria, China, Turkey, France. For us, this is a good indicator that we are moving in the right direction. Out of ten auctions, two auctions did not take place. The first auction is wind farms in the western zone, 50 MW. It is not clear to me why they did not take place, because in fact, in the west, the wind can be a very effective project. The reason, probably, is that they did not have time to prepare, and we think that at the autumn auctions in the west there will be applicants for implementing such projects. So far, we have only had one application. The second auction, which did not take place, is the projects of 10 MW solar stations in the northern and western zones. Here the explanation is clear that it is more efficient to do solar projects in the south, and therefore we gave an opportunity to those who wish to try and implement 10 MW, but the auction did not take place,” Sospanova said in her speech at the summit.

The remaining eight auctions showed good dynamics, according to the head of the RES department. In total, 42 companies from six countries of the world took part in the tenders.

“In terms of wind, the volume of purchased installed capacity amounted to 100.85 megawatts. 19 applications were received, the number of winners in total is 10. For the solar plant, the volume of purchased installed capacity amounted to 68 megawatts. 25 applications were received, the number of winners was four companies. We purchased 20.6 megawatts for hydroelectric power plants, eight applications were received, the number of winners was four. For biogas plants, which is also pleasing that we were also able to raffle off five megawatts. Three applications were received, the number of winners is one,” she specified.

It is worth noting that, despite the guarantees of providing land plots for projects based on the results of the auction, only three winning companies requested land, and most of the winners came with already allocated plots.

The latest auction for 50 MW solar capacity in the south was very active, with 14 bids with a wide geographical coverage. Therefore, the energy department is forming optimistic expectations for solar power plants in the south with a capacity of 150 MW and wind facilities in the north with a capacity of 250 MW, which will be put up for auction in the autumn.

Tariff break

“If we talk about tariffs, then the reduction was really very good for us. Since the projects gave different tariffs for wind farms from the starting 22.68 tenge, but there was a decrease to the level of 17.49 tenge - this is for 50 megawatts in the northern zone. For solar stations, we have reduced to 25.8 tenge (per kWh, the starting tariff is 34.61 tenge per kWh. - Red.) is 50 megawatts in the south of Kazakhstan. For hydroelectric power plants - up to 13.13 tenge (per kWh, starting tariff - 16.71 kWh. - Red.), which is also encouraging. For biogas plants, an insignificant, but still decrease by 32.15 tenge per kilowatt-hour (starting tariff - 32.23 kW / h. - Red.). I think that this is already a signal to the market - in which direction to move, geographically, how distribution is possible. We will analyze from the point of view of the psychology of the auction, prepare the legal framework in order to hold auctions in the fall. The rules will change, the rules will be improved in order to make it more understandable for our participants to participate, to reduce administrative barriers, and we will do this during July-August,” Sospanova said.

Auctions this spring and autumn are in equal tariff conditions. In 2019, after analysis, the marginal auction tariffs will be revised, a representative of the Ministry of Energy clarified in an interview with.

Obviously, next year's auctions will be based on average rates for different capacities, which were achieved in the spring and autumn auctions for a decrease. Naturally, there is an assumption that the projects that showed the minimum tariffs in the competition and “break the market” may not be completed due to economic insolvency, but will affect the ceiling tariffs of the auctions in 2019 through the price levels declared by them.

According to Daryn Tokhtarov, a representative of Taraz Greenpower Jenco, their HPP project did not win the hydropower auction lot, but it was a good experience.

“I don’t know in what condition our rivals approached, but we have already approached the auction with a land plot, technical conditions, with developed working documentation, passed the state examination. We had a complete package,” he said on the sidelines of the summit.

According to Tokhtarov, it will be possible to assess the success of the auctions in a year. It is by this date that the winning companies will have to provide a notification of the start of construction work on the renewable energy facility. To do this, if necessary, the winner will need to allocate a land plot and then receive the technical conditions for connection, and in the case of placing a hydroelectric power station, determine the location of the river alignment. If strong design institutes are involved in the development of a feasibility study, then it will not be easy to go through all these procedures in a year, a representative of the Taraz company believes.

"Green" instability

According to Armen Arzumanyan, a representative of the Future Energy project of Tetra Tech, financed by USAID, most potential green energy investors in Kazakhstan are concerned about the financial perspective. Now the volumes are small, but there is a lack of confidence in guaranteed purchases in the future. Some solution must be found here, Arzumanyan believes. By the way, a year ago, the International Agency for Renewable Energy IRENA Kazakhstan to capitalize the RFC.

In addition, the USAID project believes that it is desirable to prepare an auction program for three to five years in advance so that high-quality international players can prepare for them. This is especially true for wind energy, where it is necessary to make detailed measurements over a long period of time, while solar volumes can be read from a satellite. Investors are also concerned about the issue of land plots, which are allegedly not guaranteed when participating in auctions. There are questions about connecting to the power grid, which is not defined by clear procedures and deadlines.

One of the solutions could be the creation of a separate agency for renewable energy, which will catalyze the development of "green" energy in the medium term. In general, in the profile project, USAID is concerned about the lack of a strategy for the development of Kazakhstan's electric power industry for a long-term period of 20-30 years and the fact that decisions are made on a project basis, and not systematically. Moreover, it is not clear how ready the Kazakhstani energy system is to integrate the planned volumes of renewable energy, Arzumanyan said, speaking at the summit's panel session.

Marat Yelibayev, Leading Banker of the EBRD's Energy and Natural Resources Department for Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia, also confirmed in his report that the issue of long-term creditworthiness of the RFC is still on the agenda. In addition, there are risks of reducing the transmitted electricity from RES in the network (curtailment risk) due to limited capacities, he noted.

Shaimerden Chikanaev, Director of the Banking and Finance Department at the law firm GRATA International, agrees that investors have a degree of doubt that the RFC will be able to sustainably provide payments for RES electricity in the medium term. Therefore, he proposes to make KEGOC itself a single buyer, which will operate in the traditional power industry capacity market from 2019. Then green energy projects will immediately become bankable (guaranteed to generate income. - Red.), the lawyer is sure.

Commenting on the issue of possible future limited liquidity of the FFC, Ainur Sospanova said that while the government is considering this different variants.

“We looked at different options. They are still stuck in a dead end. But the RFC has been working, in my opinion, over the past five years, since it was created, steadily. In order to believe in this scheme of buying and selling, to believe in the RFC, they must gain experience. In another five years, no one will ask questions about the liquidity of the RFC, since they will be quite stable. They will already gain experience, the reserve fund that they have, and the scheme will already be working. But, in my opinion, the scheme that is spelled out in the law is a working scheme. The investor, of course, needs to close from all sides, but, in my opinion, we have an unprecedented support scheme in the renewable energy sector, and the investor can still take some risks. But here the question is no longer risks, but the question is more trust in the RFC or distrust. If you trust - come, implement projects. So far, there are no such working schemes that would be there, but we do not want to use them - there is no such thing, they simply do not exist, this scheme is working, we have looked at all the possibilities,” she noted.

“I think that the sector will develop under the current scheme. Investors who are already working in this sector, they confirm that payments are indeed being made on the same day, there are no questions. Another conversation is that the authorized body guarantees that the financial settlement center will always work in the market. If the RFC goes bankrupt, then we create another RFC, which takes over, is the legal successor, and then the market works. This scheme is spelled out in the law, so I see absolutely no problems in this,” said the director of the RES department.

Recall, according to KEGOC, in 2017, through the financial settlement center (RFC) of the national company, about 15 billion tenge, which received renewable energy facilities for the electricity they produced during this period.

Abstinence from large investors

According to Daryn Tokhtarov, Western investors, with whom Taraz Greenpower Jenco works, are alarmed by frequent changes in the field of renewable energy regulation.

“We started our project with an individual tariff, approved it according to the feasibility study. Then we were told: "We are changing the law, now work at a fixed rate." Now fixed rates are swept aside, now auctions. In companies that work with foreign capital, decisions are not made so quickly - a certain mechanism needs to be passed, an analysis needs to be carried out, reports must be submitted. There is a certain difficulty in this. But still, the market is promising, we are here, we work, we like this direction. Therefore, we are actively cooperating with the RES department, we will make our proposals in connection with the change and adjustment of the rules (holding auctions. - Red.),” he said in a conversation with .

A quiet revolution has taken place in the Russian renewable energy market, which has been noticed so far only by specialists. On January 23, 2015, Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 47 “On Amendments to Certain Acts of the Government of the Russian Federation on the Promotion of the Use of Renewable Energy Sources in the Retail Electricity Markets” was issued. Since that moment, the country has launched a retail market for electricity and capacity derived from renewable sources - in addition to the wholesale market, which is already two years old.

Let's start with the fact that this resolution is not the first one concerning the organization of the retail electricity market from RES, and introduces a number of changes and clarifications to earlier resolutions that described various aspects of the emerging retail energy (capacity) market.

In order to become a participant in the retail energy market from RES, you need to go through several steps. For those who remember ours, this algorithm is certainly familiar: there is a lot in common. The first step is getting into the regional scheme and energy development program. For RES facilities, these schemes and programs should provide for relevant projects. Admission to the program is through competitive selection. The competition must be announced in the media no later than 30 days before the competitive selection. After the competition, all materials are published within 10 days from the date of the end of the competitive selection procedure. The documents should reflect the amount of capital costs per kilowatt of capacity of a generating facility operating on the basis of renewable energy, and the timing of the return of invested capital and the basic level of the rate of return on capital.

One of the important criteria for passing the competition is the fulfillment of the localization rule: at least a certain proportion of the equipment, works and services used must be produced or provided in Russia. However, this requirement will be relevant only for facilities put into operation after January 1, 2017. Until that time, at least all the equipment used can be imported.

And only after the object, functioning on the basis of the use of renewable energy sources, is included in the scheme and program for the prospective development of the electric power industry of a particular region, the investor receives a "green light" for the construction of the facility.

After the facility is built, it, just like in the wholesale market, is qualified. Recall that this means that it should be recognized as an object that generates energy from renewable sources. The function of such verification by the decision of the Government is entrusted to NP "Market Council". The facility must operate exclusively on RES or in the mode of combined use of RES and other types of fuel. Accordingly, there should be separate metering devices.

The most important and most methodologically difficult point is the procedure for determining the long-term price or tariff, on the basis of which the return on investment will be carried out. This long-term tariff is set by the regional executive authority that regulates prices and tariffs for 15 years with a fixed rate of return. And only after agreeing on such a tariff, the generating facility begins to fully function and sell electricity on the retail market. But unlike the wholesale market, the retail market does not yet have any standards for marginal capital costs (we are just waiting for the Russian Government to issue a decree on this matter), nor a methodology for determining the long-term tariff: the Federal Tariff Service is only preparing such a document.

This is a general scheme, in which, of course, there are nuances.

In the territories that belong to the so-called non-price and price zones of the wholesale market, there is a restriction: the total volume of electricity generated by renewable energy enterprises should not exceed 5% of the volume of electricity losses in networks. The restriction is caused by the fact that grid organizations are obliged to purchase electricity from RES at increased (long-term) tariffs in order to compensate for losses in networks. Without such a limit, grid companies would incur gigantic costs.

But in isolated territories and areas that are not technologically connected with the UES, the main thing is to reduce the cost of electricity. Therefore, at least all the energy here can be purely from renewable energy sources, if it is economically viable.

When determining the tariff, the executive authorities of the subject of the federation in the field of tariff regulation must take into account the basic amount of invested capital, the amount of the reduced invested capital per unit of installed capacity, the basic level of return on long-term government obligations and the base level of return on capital invested in a generating facility, as well as the return period for invested capital.

The basic amount of invested capital is determined equal to the lesser of the three values: the cost of building a generating facility, including the cost of design and survey work and technological connection to networks, or the product of the installed capacity of the generating facility and the value of capital costs for the production of one kilowatt of installed capacity, determined based on the results of a competitive selection, or the maximum capex for the product of one kilowatt of installed capacity of a generating facility, which will be set by a special order of the Government of the Russian Federation. In isolated areas, only the first two values are considered. Thus, as soon as the methodology for determining the long-term FTS tariff is released, the RES incentive mechanism for isolated territories will come into full force.

There is another difference. If in the price and non-price zones of the wholesale market, electricity is sold to a grid organization, then in the zones of isolated territories, electricity is sold to a guarantee supplier determined in this territory. In isolated regions of Siberia and the Far East, often the same firm is both a generating facility, a grid organization, and a supplier of last resort. And today, an economically justified tariff (that is, calculated according to real costs) is obtained many times more than the tariff for the population. At the same time, due to inflation, there is an increase in the cost of electricity at diesel-electric power stations in remote areas. Support for energy systems in isolated areas is carried out by compensating for lost revenues from the regional budget, by subsidizing regional organizations for the supply of electricity to the population.

When an investor of a renewable energy facility appears, he will receive payment for electricity at the long-term tariff calculated for him. He will transfer electricity to the guaranteeing supplier operating in the area and receive payment from him. Under the mechanism that is currently in place, the subsidies of the constituent entities of the federation will be retained and transferred to the supplier of last resort so that he can pay for the electricity of the renewable energy generating facility in these isolated areas. But as we remember, at the stage of competitive selection for the right to be included in the scheme for the prospective development of the electric power industry in the region, those projects are selected that ultimately reduce the cost of electricity.

After 15 years, the executive authorities of the subjects of the federation in the field of tariff regulation will establish a new tariff for these objects using the method of economically justified costs for electricity and power. This will be done without taking into account base size invested capital. And since the costs to investors will already be returned, the cost of electricity will drop, because it will be produced at the expense of renewable energy, and the final price for consumers will decrease.

In conclusion, let's compare for clarity the main provisions of the RES incentive mechanism in the wholesale and retail electricity markets.

1. Both there and there competitive selections are held. But on the wholesale market, this is done by NP Market Council, and on the retail market, the competition is held by the subject of the federation.
2. Both there and there, the facilities should be included in the scheme and program for the prospective development of the electric power industry in the region, but for renewable energy facilities on the retail market, the competition is held precisely for the right to be included in this program.
3. Both on the wholesale and retail markets, objects must pass qualification, but for the retail market, it becomes necessary to obtain, record and redeem certificates of electricity generated using renewable energy sources. There is no such criterion in the wholesale market.
4. Both there and there, the facility must have instruments and means of commercial electricity metering. At the same time, the facility is managed by the system operator on the wholesale market, while the system operator does not appear on the retail market. RES facilities on the retail market are not included in the scope of the regional dispatch control.
5. Both on the wholesale and retail markets, the return on investment is set at 15 years. The differences are only in the calculation of the rate of return for renewable energy facilities in isolated areas.
6. Both there and there the principle of localization is applied. The requirements for the level of localization are the same, as are the penalties for non-compliance.

Thus, it can be argued that the mechanisms to stimulate the development of renewable energy sources in Russia are in effect. Projects have already been implemented on the wholesale electricity and capacity market, and on the retail market they will begin to be implemented this year. Accordingly, we can say that the RES industry has seriously started working in Russia.